By Jim Garamone
DoD News, Defense Media Activity
WASHINGTON, April 3, 2015 – Demographic changes in Asia will
make the region more important to the United States, Defense Secretary Ash
Carter said at the State Department recently.
As Carter prepared to depart April 6 for his first trip to
Asia as defense secretary, he reiterated that the United States is a Pacific
power and will remain one, adding that this is in the best interests of Asian
nations and of the United States.
Demographic trends show that Asian nations will only become
more important globally in the 21st century, as Asian nations -- enjoying peace
provided by American presence -- prosper and grow, Carter said. In the future,
he added, no region will affect U.S. prosperity more, and it is in American
interests to maintain a strong security presence in the region.
The math is inescapable, Carter said at the State
Department.
“We know that 95 percent of the world’s customers live
beyond our borders, and the spending power of middle-class consumers in today’s
emerging markets is expected to increase by $20 trillion over the next decade,”
he said.
Rising Middle-class Consumption
Just five years ago, the United States and Europe accounted
for around 50 percent of global middle class consumption, and Asia accounted
for about 20 percent, he said.
“Five years from now, the U.S. and European share of
middle-class consumption will shrink to about 30 percent, while Asia’s will
rise to 40 percent,” the secretary said. “And this trend will continue as
Asia’s 570-million-strong middle class grows to about 2.7 billion consumers
over the next 15 years.”
So, from an economic standpoint, Asia will become more
important to American manufacturers, American jobs and American consumers. The
central premise of America’s overall Asia-Pacific strategy is the recognition
that, in the 21st century, no region holds more potential for growth,
development and prosperity, Carter said.
Growing Populations
Roughly 7 billion people live in the world today. In 25
years, demographers estimate that number will grow to 9 billion, with much of
the growth occurring in Asia, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics and
the CIA World Factbook.
China and India are the world’s two most populous countries
and will remain so through 2050. Today, China has around 1.355 billion people,
and India has around 1.236 billion. By 2050, officials expect India to be the
most populous country in the world with 1.65 billion people, and China’s
population will be 1.303 billion.
Economic progress in both countries has been building.
Today, China has about 150 million people earning between $10 and $100 per day
-- the amount economists calculate as putting a person in the global middle
class. If the country continues its current growth, as many as 500 million
Chinese could enter the global middle class over the next decade. This means
that by 2030, 1 billion Chinese people could be in the economic middle class.
India’s middle class is much smaller -- about 50 million
people. But economists expect India’s middle class to reach 200 million by 2020
and 475 million by 2030.
Both countries have systemic problems they need to overcome,
and projections may fall short, officials said, but they added that the
projections have the potential to prove accurate.
This growth is not limited to the two largest countries in
Asia. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines also are posed for an incredible
growth in their middle classes.
Capable Militaries
From a security standpoint, Asia is home to some of the
largest and strongest militaries on the globe. China, Russia, North Korea,
India and Pakistan have large and capable militaries. With the exception of
North Korea, the U.S. military is working to improve relations with each.
American military leaders also are working with traditional allies such as
South Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines and New Zealand to strengthen
multilateral cooperation in the region.
Other nations -- Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia,
Thailand and Burma -- also are working to preserve stability in the region.
Snapshot of Military Powers
Here’s a snapshot of the various military powers in the
region:
-- China spends at least 2 percent of its gross domestic
product on defense and has the world’s largest armed forces, with 2.333 million
active duty forces and 2.3 million reserves. Its stated defense budget is $145
billion. China has about 3,000 aircraft in its armed forces, has bought an
aircraft carrier from Russia, and is building one of its own. The Chinese have
more than 9,000 tanks and almost 5,000 armored fighting vehicles and are
modernizing across all services.
-- South Korea spends 2.88 percent of its GDP on defense.
The republic has 624,465 people on active duty and almost 3 million in the
reserves. South Korea has 1,412 total aircraft and a naval strength of 166
ships. The South Korean military is extremely capable and has a defense budget
of $33.1 billion.
-- Japan spends about 1 percent of its GDP on defense. There
are 247,173 personnel in the Japanese Self-Defense Force, with about 58,000
active reserve personnel. The Japanese military has 678 tanks, 2,850 armored
fighting vehicles, 1,613 aircraft and 131 ships. The defense budget is $41.6
billion.
-- India spends 2.43 percent of its GDP on defense. The
nation has 1.325 million people under arms, with 2.1 million more in reserve
status. India’s military has about 2,000 aircraft, two aircraft carriers, 202
ships, more than 6,400 tanks and 6,700 armored fighting vehicles. The Indian
defense budget is $38 billion.
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