Break Point Goes to Putin

All the talking heads on the Sunday talk shows this morning seemed to be reaching for the smelling salts as they tried to hype the “crisis” of Russian troops moving west into the Ukraine and Crimea. What a difference a day, or two, can make. On Friday, President Obama warned that President Putin should not do that.  On Saturday, President Putin did just that.  Also on Saturday, the National Security Council met to discuss this issue.  President Obama did not attend.  

The Russians brought about 2,000 troops and enough armored vehicles to let everyone watching that they, unlike our President,  prefers action to posturing.  “What does this mean?” the talking heads asked, as they consulted other talking heads.  What it means, quite simply, is that Russia, what’s left of the Soviet Union, is rebuilding its buffers and protecting its Navy in the Black Sea, which is what anyone who has an appreciation of history in this part of the world would expect.  From all indications so far, I’d say it’s a good bet that they will do just that.

What will the West do?  Probably nothing.  We’ve done enough “nation building” and “democracy spreading” during the past decade to last a lifetime  and really don’t have much to show for it.  We’ve failed in Iraq and are now begging Karzai to let us stick around in Afghanistan  after 2014 for no reason that makes any sense to any sane person.  We have chewed up a great military in both of these adventures by refusing to get serious with radical Islam and corrupt, tin horn tyrants such as Hamid Karzai.  What, exactly,  have we done in the past few years to make our military stronger and more fearful to a guy like Putin?  What have been our major initiatives?  Let’s just list three to give you an idea.  Gays can now serve openly, women can serve in ground combat units and the end strength of the Army will be cut by some 20%. None of these will likely terrify Putin, who knows the difference between strength and fluff.  In addition, we have also pulled NATO into the adventure in Afghanistan that will, more than likely, lead to the end of this organization.  Had Afghanistan been a success, then NATO could remain somewhat relevant but not now.  Afghanistan has been hard on all members of NATO and, once they leave Afghanistan, they will go home and try to heal their wounds.  A force that has been defeated in Afghanistan by rag-tag Taliban is hardly the kind of force you want if you are going to go up against a real strong man like Putin, regardless of what they tell the press.  Love him or hate him, Putin deserves respect because he knows how things work in the real world.  Unfortunately, our President is still stuck somewhere in Chicago as a community organizer, trying to figure out what’s happening.

The truth is, Putin knows Obama better than Obama knows Obama.  He enjoys making Obama look small because it is so easy to do.  Remember, he came to Obama’s rescue last year in Syria after Syria crossed the line Obama said it could not cross.  He bailed him out again in Iran.  And don’t forget that the Olympics were a tremendous success in spite of Obama trying to embarrass Putin by having gays lead our delegation to the Winter Games.  Through all of this, Putin has watched our President and had come to the conclusion, long ago, that he is definitely not dealing with a Ronald Reagan.  He has watched Karzai push Omaba around for years and get away with it in Afghanistan. Considering all this, why should he fear any threat from Obama?  He also knows something else.  Any opposition to what he wants to do in the Ukraine will have to include the United States.  This does not worry him.  About all the protest we can seem to muster is to cancel some meaningless summit in June.  

This might be a big deal in John Kerry’s neutered, silk-draped  State Department, but not in the Kremlin.  This is not the kind of threat that keeps a mjohn an like Putin awake at night.

About the Author

Lieutenant Colonel John Lewis Cook, United States Army (Retired), “served as the Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Interior in Kabul, Afghanistan, with responsibility for developing the force structure for the entire Afghan National Police.  As of 2012, this force totals 157,000.  From March 2008 until August 2012, his access and intimate associations with all levels of the Afghan government and coalition forces have provided him with an unprecedented insight into the policies which will determine the outcome of the war.  It is this insight, coupled with his contacts and associations throughout Afghanistan that form the basis of Afghanistan: The Perfect Failure.

John Cook is not new to war zones.  In addition to four and a half years in Afghanistan, he has spent over two years in Vietnam as an intelligence officer and became the youngest District Senior Advisor in Vietnam.  He was one of the first intelligence officers in Vietnam responsible for the implementation of the Phoenix Program, the most successful counterinsurgency program ever initiated by the U.S. military.  Upon his return from Vietnam, he authored The Advisor: The Phoenix Program in Vietnam, recognized as one of the premier texts on defeating insurgences, now in its third edition, and Rescue Under Fire: The History of Dustoff in Vietnam. Screenwriter Gregg Moscoe is currently working on a screenplay adaptation of Rescue Under Fire.  He has written additional books, including Amos Tarr: Native Son, an absurdly humorous and highly fictionalized story based on childhood recollections of his Appalachian roots. 

John Cook graduated with a B.A. from the University of Delaware and has a Master’s Degree from Boston University.  He is considered an expert in counterinsurgency, having written doctrine on this subject for the U.S. Army Intelligence Center & School.  In addition, he is the recipient of the Silver Star, 3 Bronze Stars, the Purple Heart, Legion of Merit, Meritorious Service Medal, Vietnamese Medal of Honor and several other combat and peacetime awards.  He has served as the publisher and editor for the Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Journal.  His recollections of Vietnam are included in Ron Steinman’s “A Soldier’s Story” both as a book and television documentary.

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